Independent commodity intelligence

Physical market research for institutional capital

Grey Vault Technology models the physical reality behind precious metals and crude oil prices — supply, flow and inventory — and turns it into forecasts desks can position against.

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Gold bullion bars stacked inside a steel vault

The board

Live feed · last update 24 Sept, 03:22 UTC

GOLD (XAUUSD)

Gold

4,320.70

+2.30 (+0.05%)

Session range: 4,308.00 — 4,338.00

Official-sector bid absorbing every dip below the 20-day mean.

SILVER (XAGUSD)

Silver

64.49

-0.48 (-0.74%)

Session range: 64.17 — 65.01

Fourth deficit quarter; industrial offtake outpacing scrap supply.

CRUDE OIL (WTI)

Crude Oil

91.38

-0.78 (-0.85%)

Session range: 91.26 — 92.79

Cushing draws diverging from the five-year seasonal band.

BITCOIN (BTCUSD)

Bitcoin

84,149

-222 (-0.26%)

Session range: 83,783 — 84,440

ETF net creations positive for a sixth consecutive session.

Front-month futures and spot crypto, refreshed every minute — indicative research levels, not a tradeable quote.

Daily Briefs

Pre-market synthesis of overnight activity across London, Singapore and New York, in the desk's hands before the open.

Price Forecasting

Econometric models producing forward curves and scenario bands for Brent, WTI and the precious complex.

Supply-Demand Models

Production quotas, refinery runs, mine output and vault stocks reconciled into a single physical balance.

Bespoke Mandates

Commissioned research for funds, refiners and sovereign entities where the consensus view is not enough.

Intelligence stream

Published T+0

04 AUG 2026

Energy

Cushing draws break seasonal pattern: a 90-day view on WTI spreads

Inventory telemetry at the delivery hub is diverging from the five-year band while maintenance cycles compress mid-distillate supply.

31 JUL 2026

Precious Metals

Silver's fourth consecutive deficit quarter and the industrial bid

Photovoltaic offtake continues to absorb above-ground stocks faster than mine and scrap supply can replace them.

24 JUL 2026

Macro

Official-sector gold buying: reserve reallocation, not tactical trading

Central bank purchase patterns across 24 months point to a structural, price-insensitive source of demand.

Market wire

Gold · Silver · WTI · Bitcoin

GOLD (XAUUSD)10 AUG · 15:12Bullish

Central bank net purchases hold above 60t for a fourth month

Reserve managers in Asia and the Gulf continue to add on price-insensitive mandates, keeping the structural bid intact through the summer lull.

SILVER (XAGUSD)10 AUG · 13:47Bullish

Photovoltaic paste demand revised higher for H2

Cell manufacturers in China raised loading forecasts, tightening an above-ground stock position already drawn down by four consecutive deficit quarters.

CRUDE OIL (WTI)10 AUG · 12:05Bearish

Cushing stocks build against seasonal pattern

Hub telemetry shows an unseasonal build as Midwest refinery maintenance runs long, pressuring prompt spreads while back months hold firm.

BITCOIN (BTCUSD)10 AUG · 09:30Bullish

Spot ETF creations extend to a sixth session

Sustained primary-market creations plus falling exchange balances point to supply absorption rather than leverage-driven upside.

GOLD (XAUUSD)09 AUG · 17:20Neutral

London vault holdings slip as metal moves east

Net outflows from LBMA-approved vaults continue for a third month, consistent with physical relocation rather than liquidation.

CRUDE OIL (WTI)09 AUG · 11:08Neutral

Freight rates lift landed costs on transatlantic barrels

Rising clean and dirty tanker rates are widening the arb window, a signal our balance carries straight into forward-curve scenarios.

USD event calendar

Impact · forecast · prior print

Scheduled United States releases that move the four benchmarks we cover, with consensus, the previous reading and a desk note on the transmission channel. Times shown in UTC.

Ahead

Thu 24 Sept, 08:10 UTC

Low impact

FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Actual

—

Forecast

—

Policy path and dot plot dominate the real-rate channel for precious metals and risk appetite for bitcoin.

Thu 24 Sept, 12:30 UTC

Medium impact

Unemployment Claims

Actual

—

Forecast

201K

196K

Labour prints steer Fed pricing: hot data lifts real yields and pressures gold and BTC; strong jobs support crude demand.

Thu 24 Sept, 12:30 UTC

Low impact

Current Account

Actual

—

Forecast

-258B

-227B

External and fiscal balances shape the dollar trend that sits under every benchmark we cover.

Thu 24 Sept, 12:30 UTC

Low impact

FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

Actual

—

Forecast

—

Policy path and dot plot dominate the real-rate channel for precious metals and risk appetite for bitcoin.

Thu 24 Sept, 12:50 UTC

Low impact

FOMC Member Hammack Speaks

Actual

—

Forecast

—

Policy path and dot plot dominate the real-rate channel for precious metals and risk appetite for bitcoin.

Thu 24 Sept, 14:00 UTC

Low impact

New Home Sales

Actual

—

Forecast

615K

607K

Second-tier release: relevant mainly through its effect on the dollar and Fed expectations.

Thu 24 Sept, 14:10 UTC

Low impact

FOMC Member Paulson Speaks

Actual

—

Forecast

—

Policy path and dot plot dominate the real-rate channel for precious metals and risk appetite for bitcoin.

Thu 24 Sept, 14:30 UTC

Low impact

Natural Gas Storage

Actual

—

Forecast

50B

44B

Second-tier release: relevant mainly through its effect on the dollar and Fed expectations.

Fri 25 Sept, 09:15 UTC

Low impact

FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Actual

—

Forecast

—

Policy path and dot plot dominate the real-rate channel for precious metals and risk appetite for bitcoin.

Fri 25 Sept, 12:30 UTC

Low impact

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Actual

—

Forecast

0.6%

0.4%

Activity gauges track industrial offtake — key for silver's photovoltaic and electronics demand.

Fri 25 Sept, 12:30 UTC

Low impact

Durable Goods Orders m/m

Actual

—

Forecast

-0.3%

1.1%

Activity gauges track industrial offtake — key for silver's photovoltaic and electronics demand.

Fri 25 Sept, 13:20 UTC

Low impact

FOMC Member Schmid Speaks

Actual

—

Forecast

—

Policy path and dot plot dominate the real-rate channel for precious metals and risk appetite for bitcoin.

Coverage universe

Four benchmarks, one physical balance

Deliberately narrow: gold, silver, WTI crude and bitcoin are modelled on a single framework, so cross-asset signals — freight, currency, industrial offtake, ETF flow — are never lost between reports.

GOLD (XAUUSD)
SILVER (XAGUSD)
CRUDE OIL (WTI)
BITCOIN (BTCUSD)

Methodology

Vessel & flow telemetry

AIS tracking of crude and product tankers across 40 primary loading and discharge hubs.

Ground-truth auditing

Physical verification of refinery runs, mine output and vault holdings through a regional analyst network.

Backtested econometrics

Every published forecast is scored against twenty years of realised cycles before it leaves the desk.

Grey Vault does not trade, hedge or hold positions in the markets it covers. Revenue comes from research subscriptions alone — the only structure that keeps a forecast honest.

Institutional access

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Subscriptions are onboarded desk by desk. Tell us which benchmarks you trade and we will send the relevant sample pack and pricing.

info@greyvault.org